He adds that informal mango farmers without irrigation might even argue that it is down by more than 20% or more.
Derek Donkin, CEO of Subtrop, the industry organisation for mangoes, litchis and avocados, says that the prospects for the mango season differ over the various production regions, and that it is difficult to give a firm estimate at this stage.
The major harvesting only takes place from December but the first Tommy Atkins mangoes have arrived on the market.
Last year saw a mango crop of 75,000 tonnes.
“It’s been an odd year on mangoes,” Buys remarks. Flowering was uneven, he explains, and took place over a long period, with the result that pollination was erratic and now there are small fruit as well as large fruit on the same tree, which will require more labour during the harvesting period to move through orchards multiple times.